Party Preference Shifts Follow Changes in Presidential Approval victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Republicans had a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s. The GOP has held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters since 1991. Democrats held larger, double-digit advantages in isolated quarters between 19 and nearly continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009. The Democratic lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the fourth quarter of 2012, when Democrats also had a nine-point advantage. The combined percentage of party identifiers and leaners gives a measure of the relative strength of the two parties politically.īoth the nine-point Democratic advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter are among the largest Gallup has measured for each party in any quarter since it began regularly measuring party identification and leaning in 1991. Independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican or Democratic Party. Gallup asks all Americans it interviews whether they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with more than 12,000 randomly sampled U.S. These results are based on aggregated data from all U.S. In the fourth quarter, 42% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and 47% were Republicans and Republican leaners. In the third quarter, 45% were Democrats and Democratic leaners, and were 44% Republicans and Republican leaners. In the second quarter, 49% were Democrats or Democratic leaners, and 43% were Republicans and Republican leaners. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic, while 40% identified as Republicans or leaned Republican. In the first quarter of 2021, 49% of U.S. party identification and leaning in 2021.
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